The president’s political woes among Catholics are not aiding the position of the Democrats in the six battleground states both on the senatorial and gubernatorial election fronts. In the races that will determine who controls the U.S. Senate, the survey found that the Republican candidates for the Senate were all in the lead among Catholic voters heading into the midterms.
In Arizona, Republican Blake Masters now narrowly polls ahead of Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly among Catholic voters by 51.4%-46.3%. In Florida, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio leads Democrat Val Demings by 59.1%-36.9%. In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker leads Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock by 64.7%-32.7%. Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead of Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, 56.7%-36.4%. And in Ohio, Republican J.D. Vance leads Democrat Tim Ryan, 55.5%-41.0%.
Once again, daily and weekly Mass-attending Catholics are proving vital to the electoral advantage currently held by Republican candidates in the six states.
The findings are very similar in the governor races in the six states. Only in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Josh Shapiro leads over the Republican candidate, Doug Mastriano, 50.8%-44.5%, does a Democrat poll ahead of the Republican among Catholic voters. In Arizona, Republican Kari Lake narrowly leads Democrat Katie Hobbs by 52.5%-46.9%. Nearby, in Nevada, Republican Joe Lombardo is ahead of Democrat Steve Sisolak, 55.6%-34.2%.
In Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp comfortably leads Stacey Abrams by 67.1%-31.1%. In Ohio, Republican Mike DeWine is ahead of Democrat Nan Whaley by 61.3%-34.4%. And in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis leads Democrat Charlie Crist 61.4%-34.5% in his bid for re-election.
Focus on abortion
While the economy is the major driving force for Catholics as they decide how to vote in the midterms, the gambit by the Democrats to focus so intensely on abortion in the wake of the overturn of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court in June seems not to have succeeded.
As seen, Catholics across the six states that were surveyed placed abortion a very distant third among the most important issues for the country, behind the economy and immigration/border security. While abortion remains a divisive issue for Catholics — despite the clear teaching of the Church against it — Catholics across every subgroup of Mass attendance do not see abortion as the most urgent issue for America for the election.
In Nevada, for example, 46.2% of Catholics who attend Mass only once a year responded that abortion should be available to a woman at any time she wants one during her entire pregnancy. Only 2.8% of these Catholics believe abortion is the most pressing issue for the election.
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At the same time, the vast majority of Catholics in all six states want restrictions or regulations on abortion.
In Pennsylvania, 81% of all likely Catholic voters want some restrictions; in Florida, 82.5% want restrictions; and in Georgia 84% favor restrictions. This places most Catholic voters in opposition to the Democrat candidates who have largely opposed any restrictions on abortion and who have unanimously called for the codification of Roe v. Wade into federal law.
When it comes to the question of the impact of Dobbs, by an average of 59.1%, a majority of Catholics in the six states support the idea that elected representatives and ballot initiatives rather than judges and courts should decide the question of where abortion policy should be decided. This view would support the outcome of the Dobbs decision that sent the question of abortion to the states.
The Hispanic Catholic vote
The Hispanic Catholic vote is another potentially significant group to watch in the midterms, especially as polling by EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research has detected movement of Catholic Hispanics away from the Democratic Party and toward the Republicans.
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