Because neither of these sources break information down by state, the researchers then looked to the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s 2019 Uniform Crime Reports on rapes. They assume that this data underreports rapes but use this information to estimate the proportion of rapes in a given state.
Using this data, the researchers estimated how many rapes would have likely occurred in states with abortion bans. The researchers estimate that about 12.5% of the rapes would likely have led to pregnancy, which brought them to estimate 64,565 rape-related pregnancies in the 14 states with near total abortion bans between July 1, 2022, and Jan. 1, 2024.
“Our estimates have several limitations,” the authors acknowledged. “Most importantly, limited reliable information is available on rape victimization and rape-induced pregnancy.”
Some academics CNA interviewed said these “limitations” call into question the reliability of the study’s conclusions.
Michael New, a senior associate scholar at the pro-life Charlotte Lozier Institute and professor at the Catholic University of America, told CNA that estimates about the number of rapes in the country and the percentage of rapes that result in pregnancy vary from study to study. He said the CDC estimates are “much higher than the others,” while the criminal reports to police that are in the FBI numbers are “an undercount.”
New noted in an article in National Review that if one extrapolates the calculations in this study nationally for 2017, it would suggest that “10% of all abortions were performed on rape victims” if half of the rape victims received an abortion. Yet he noted that multiple surveys from the pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute found that rape victims only account for 1% of abortions.
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